Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 54.3%). Look for Goodrow on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Goodrow wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 53.5% vs Paul 53.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 81.0%
Defensive zone
Goodrow 71.2%
Neutral zone
Goodrow 50.9%
Result
Barclay Goodrow favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Goodrow
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Goodrow
Paul
Last 9: Goodrow 7-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Goodrow
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Goodrow
4
0
Goodrow
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Goodrow
3
1
Goodrow
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (544)
53.1% (710)
+2.4%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
57.3% (199)
-24.0%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (74)
58.0% (69)
-13.4%
On power play, Paul has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Goodrow is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (395).
Goodrow shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Goodrow
Paul
Home
57.2% (332)
56.0% (466)
Away
50.3% (292)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Goodrow
Paul
P1
50.8%
57.2%
P2
59.5%
54.9%
P3
51.8%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
54.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 19:30 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:43 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:47 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |