Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Verhaeghe wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Verhaeghe 47.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Verhaeghe 72.4%
Defensive zone
Verhaeghe 53.6%
Neutral zone
Verhaeghe 60.9%
Result
Carter Verhaeghe favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Verhaeghe
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Verhaeghe
Paul
Last 6: Verhaeghe 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Verhaeghe
1
0
Verhaeghe
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Verhaeghe
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Verhaeghe
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (72)
53.1% (710)
-10.0%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
57.3% (199)
-7.3%
On even strength, Paul has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Verhaeghe is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (54).
Verhaeghe shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Verhaeghe
Paul
Home
43.9% (41)
56.0% (466)
Away
44.2% (43)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Verhaeghe
Paul
P1
41.2%
57.2%
P2
55.2%
54.9%
P3
33.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Verhaeghe
34.0%▼
40.0%
44.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Carter Verhaeghe |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Carter Verhaeghe |