Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pettersson wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs Paul 53.3% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pettersson 70.4%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 73.4%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 67.7%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Pettersson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pettersson
Paul
Last 5: Pettersson 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Pettersson
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (790)
53.2% (327)
-7.3%
Power Play
55.4% (242)
61.4% (57)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (107)
50.0% (32)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pettersson is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (730).
Pettersson shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Paul
Home
49.3% (584)
54.6% (183)
Away
44.5% (555)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Pettersson
Paul
P1
45.8%
56.3%
P2
47.9%
54.8%
P3
47.1%
52.4%
OT
47.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.1%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |