Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 91.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 64.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 76.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 77.6%
22.4%
77.6%
Bjugstad
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Bjugstad
Paul
Last 5: Bjugstad 4-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
0
Bjugstad
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
53.1% (710)
-2.4%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
57.3% (199)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
58.0% (69)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Bjugstad shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Paul
Home
49.8% (643)
56.0% (466)
Away
48.7% (610)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Bjugstad
Paul
P1
49.4%
57.2%
P2
50.5%
54.9%
P3
47.9%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:22 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |