Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 14 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Stastny 55.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 22-7 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 66.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 79.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 71.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Paul
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
22
(29 meetings)
7
22
Paul
Stastny
Last 10: Paul 1-9 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
14
Paul
Stastny
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
5
2
Paul
Stastny
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
6
Paul
Stastny
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
54.6% (10,616)
-2.1%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
59.1% (1,994)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
52.9% (1,119)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Paul
Stastny
Home
52.7% (2,412)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Paul
Stastny
P1
53.9%
56.3%
P2
51.0%
55.4%
P3
52.0%
53.5%
OT
50.0%
62.9%
Final 5 min
51.4%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 16:34 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 05:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 05:05 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:11 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 16:12 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 1 | 04:08 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |