Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Chartier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Chartier 51.5% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 73.9%
Defensive zone
Chartier 59.2%
Neutral zone
Chartier 56.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Paul
Chartier
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Paul
Chartier
Last 6: Paul 3-3 Chartier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
0
Paul
Chartier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chartier
0
2
Paul
Chartier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chartier
0
1
Paul
Chartier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Chartier
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
54.2% (225)
-1.1%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
75.0% (4)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
43.3% (67)
+14.7%
On power play, Chartier has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chartier shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Chartier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Paul
Chartier
Home
56.0% (466)
49.5% (202)
Away
52.7% (512)
57.4% (94)
By Period
Paul
Chartier
P1
57.2%
51.6%
P2
54.9%
49.5%
P3
51.5%
54.6%
Final 5 min
52.3%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |