Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Chartier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Chartier 50.0% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 60.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Paul
Chartier
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Paul
Chartier
Last 6: Paul 3-3 Chartier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
0
Paul
Chartier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chartier
0
2
Paul
Chartier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chartier
0
1
Paul
Chartier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Chartier
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
50.8% (329)
+1.7%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
66.7% (6)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
45.6% (79)
+1.1%
On power play, Chartier has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chartier shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Chartier is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (277).
Home / Away
Paul
Chartier
Home
52.7% (2,412)
48.3% (240)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
52.3% (174)
By Period
Paul
Chartier
P1
53.9%
51.5%
P2
51.0%
48.1%
P3
52.0%
50.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |