Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Zacha 51.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 78.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 76.8%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 50.3%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Schmaltz
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Schmaltz
Zacha
Last 6: Schmaltz 3-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Schmaltz
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
0
Schmaltz
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (665)
53.3% (646)
-7.4%
Power Play
46.8% (111)
53.0% (100)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
38.9% (72)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Schmaltz shoots right. Zacha is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Zacha
Home
44.7% (409)
51.7% (410)
Away
47.6% (391)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Schmaltz
Zacha
P1
40.3%
57.7%
P2
47.6%
48.9%
P3
51.0%
50.2%
OT
0.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
40.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |