Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.5% vs Zacha 49.1% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 60.2%
Defensive zone
Zacha 89.7%
Neutral zone
Zacha 71.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Schmaltz
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
7
(18 meetings)
11
7
Schmaltz
Zacha
Last 10: Schmaltz 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
4
3
Schmaltz
Zacha
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
3
Schmaltz
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
5
1
Schmaltz
Zacha
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (3,399)
48.9% (5,102)
-7.7%
Power Play
47.1% (649)
55.6% (804)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (134)
42.2% (555)
+5.6%
On power play, Zacha has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Schmaltz shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Zacha
Home
42.7% (2,089)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
41.9% (2,093)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Schmaltz
Zacha
P1
41.1%
49.9%
P2
42.9%
49.2%
P3
43.0%
48.1%
OT
42.4%
53.1%
Final 5 min
42.2%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 01:28 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 9, 2024 | OT | 01:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 9, 2024 | OT | 00:54 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:39 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 01:35 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 3 | 02:02 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |