Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 38.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.8% vs Johansen 52.8% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 70.4%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 50.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 62.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Schmaltz
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Schmaltz
Johansen
Last 6: Schmaltz 2-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Schmaltz
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (309)
51.9% (597)
-13.4%
Power Play
53.2% (79)
57.9% (133)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
54.3% (81)
-29.3%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Schmaltz is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Schmaltz shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Johansen
Home
38.0% (184)
55.8% (387)
Away
43.5% (216)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Schmaltz
Johansen
P1
40.3%
50.0%
P2
39.9%
56.2%
P3
40.7%
52.6%
OT
70.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
41.6%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024 | 3 | 05:03 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:12 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:19 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:49 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |