Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Schmaltz wins 45.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.5% vs Johansen 53.3% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 16-7 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 85.8%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 89.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 91.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Schmaltz
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
16
(23 meetings)
7
16
Schmaltz
Johansen
Last 10: Schmaltz 3-7 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
5
Schmaltz
Johansen
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
3
7
Schmaltz
Johansen
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
4
Schmaltz
Johansen
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (3,399)
53.1% (11,017)
-11.9%
Power Play
47.1% (649)
56.2% (2,163)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (134)
50.5% (978)
-2.7%
On even strength, Johansen has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,167).
Schmaltz shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Johansen
Home
42.7% (2,089)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
41.9% (2,093)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Schmaltz
Johansen
P1
41.1%
53.2%
P2
42.9%
53.9%
P3
43.0%
52.8%
OT
42.4%
58.2%
Final 5 min
42.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024 | 3 | 05:03 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:12 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:19 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:49 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 03:27 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 2 | 05:32 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 1 | 18:31 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2016 | 3 | 14:07 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |