Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.4% vs 42.6%). Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.6% vs Novak 43.0% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 53.5%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 50.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Schmaltz
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Schmaltz
Novak
Last 5: Schmaltz 3-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Schmaltz
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
0
Schmaltz
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
41.3% (3,431)
41.8% (1,568)
-0.5%
Power Play
47.3% (655)
51.5% (134)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (135)
50.0% (2)
-2.6%
On power play, Novak has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,049).
Schmaltz shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Novak
Home
42.8% (2,114)
45.1% (831)
Away
42.0% (2,107)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Schmaltz
Novak
P1
41.3%
43.7%
P2
42.8%
42.8%
P3
43.1%
41.1%
OT
42.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
42.3%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 14:06 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |