Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Schmaltz wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Johnston 48.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 71.1%
Defensive zone
Johnston 69.0%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 50.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Schmaltz
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Schmaltz
Johnston
Last 10: Schmaltz 4-6 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Schmaltz
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
3
Schmaltz
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (665)
47.8% (623)
-1.9%
Power Play
46.8% (111)
50.8% (63)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
51.4% (35)
-1.4%
On power play, Johnston has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Schmaltz shoots right. Johnston is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Johnston
Home
44.7% (409)
47.6% (351)
Away
47.6% (391)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Schmaltz
Johnston
P1
40.3%
49.6%
P2
47.6%
47.3%
P3
51.0%
48.0%
OT
0.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
40.2%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |