Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Suzuki on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suzuki 50.3% vs Sturm 53.6% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 78.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.3%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 50.9%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Suzuki
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Suzuki
Sturm
Last 6: Suzuki 3-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
3
0
Suzuki
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Suzuki
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Suzuki
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suzuki
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (904)
54.6% (271)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (57)
54.4% (90)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Suzuki is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (921).
Suzuki shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Suzuki
Sturm
Home
50.6% (603)
53.0% (168)
Away
50.1% (623)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Suzuki
Sturm
P1
52.3%
58.2%
P2
47.5%
53.2%
P3
51.1%
52.3%
OT
48.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 15:53 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |