Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suzuki 50.3% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 78.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 76.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 76.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 77.0%
23.0%
77.0%
Suzuki
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Suzuki
Cates
Last 8: Suzuki 2-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Suzuki
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Suzuki
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
4
Suzuki
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suzuki
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (904)
45.4% (712)
+5.9%
Power Play
49.8% (265)
42.2% (102)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (57)
44.7% (47)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Suzuki is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (921).
Suzuki shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Suzuki
Cates
Home
50.6% (603)
46.3% (423)
Away
50.1% (623)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Suzuki
Cates
P1
52.3%
46.3%
P2
47.5%
47.1%
P3
51.1%
42.1%
OT
48.6%
18.2%
Final 5 min
48.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |