Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.0% vs 51.2%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Backstrom 51.1% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 76.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.3%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 54.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Dowd
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dowd
Backstrom
Last 6: Dowd 4-2 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Backstrom
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Backstrom
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (343)
51.0% (1,104)
+0.6%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
54.5% (178)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
47.2% (89)
-0.1%
On power play, Backstrom has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Dowd is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (267).
Dowd shoots right. Backstrom is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (499).
Home / Away
Dowd
Backstrom
Home
43.0% (172)
52.6% (705)
Away
57.1% (224)
49.7% (666)
By Period
Dowd
Backstrom
P1
47.4%
51.1%
P2
60.6%
51.0%
P3
44.7%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.0%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 04:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Nov 30, 2017 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2017 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |