Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Drouin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Drouin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 45.6% vs Sturm 55.2% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 57.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 91.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 85.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Drouin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Drouin
Sturm
Last 6: Drouin 4-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
3
1
Drouin
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (355)
56.1% (716)
-11.0%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
67.7% (31)
-26.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
51.1% (133)
-51.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +51.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Drouin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Drouin shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Drouin
Sturm
Home
37.5% (160)
55.6% (412)
Away
49.5% (220)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Drouin
Sturm
P1
40.3%
59.6%
P2
43.3%
52.0%
P3
49.6%
55.5%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 02:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |