Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Zacha 49.1% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 74.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 75.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 57.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Sturm
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Sturm
Zacha
Last 10: Sturm 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
3
Sturm
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
2
Sturm
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
48.9% (5,102)
+8.2%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
55.6% (804)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
42.2% (555)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Sturm
Zacha
Home
57.1% (1,614)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Sturm
Zacha
P1
56.5%
49.9%
P2
54.9%
49.2%
P3
57.4%
48.1%
OT
60.6%
53.1%
Final 5 min
56.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 05:39 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |