Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs McLeod 47.7% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 85.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 57.5%
Neutral zone
McLeod 60.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Sturm
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Sturm
McLeod
Last 10: Sturm 4-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
5
Sturm
McLeod
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
0
Sturm
McLeod
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Sturm
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
47.8% (448)
+6.2%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
48.1% (52)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (102)
36.0% (25)
+14.0%
On power play, McLeod has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. McLeod is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Sturm
McLeod
Home
54.0% (287)
46.6% (253)
Away
52.0% (302)
47.8% (272)
By Period
Sturm
McLeod
P1
53.5%
43.9%
P2
51.0%
45.9%
P3
55.1%
52.1%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 1 | 10:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 00:14 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |