Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs McLeod 50.7% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 58.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 91.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 76.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Sturm
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Sturm
McLeod
Last 7: Sturm 5-2 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Sturm
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
51.3% (628)
+9.3%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
68.3% (41)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
30.6% (49)
+25.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Sturm
McLeod
Home
61.6% (451)
51.5% (394)
Away
58.2% (376)
50.0% (324)
By Period
Sturm
McLeod
P1
55.9%
51.5%
P2
58.9%
47.0%
P3
64.6%
54.3%
OT
70.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 09:44 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |