Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Crosby 53.5% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 85.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 80.7%
Neutral zone
Crosby 51.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Sturm
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Sturm
Crosby
Last 10: Sturm 3-7 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
8
Sturm
Crosby
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
10
3
Sturm
Crosby
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
52.8% (17,990)
+4.3%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
57.4% (4,733)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
47.1% (765)
+3.9%
On even strength, Sturm has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,851).
Home / Away
Sturm
Crosby
Home
57.1% (1,614)
55.0% (11,972)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
52.0% (11,535)
By Period
Sturm
Crosby
P1
56.5%
53.6%
P2
54.9%
53.9%
P3
57.4%
53.3%
OT
60.6%
49.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:24 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:53 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |