Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Crosby 56.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 80.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 77.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.4%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Sturm
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Sturm
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
2
Sturm
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
56.2% (1,451)
+5.9%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
61.4% (293)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
55.3% (38)
-16.6%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Sturm shoots left. Crosby is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Home / Away
Sturm
Crosby
Home
61.8% (191)
59.1% (939)
Away
56.3% (231)
54.7% (843)
By Period
Sturm
Crosby
P1
58.0%
54.9%
P2
57.9%
60.8%
P3
60.6%
55.4%
Final 5 min
58.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |