Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Crosby 52.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 82.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 87.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Sturm
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Sturm
Crosby
Last 6: Sturm 4-2 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
2
Sturm
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
52.5% (1,443)
+3.6%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
54.7% (369)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
55.9% (34)
-4.8%
On power play, Sturm has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Crosby is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,199).
Home / Away
Sturm
Crosby
Home
55.6% (412)
53.0% (931)
Away
56.0% (468)
53.0% (915)
By Period
Sturm
Crosby
P1
59.6%
50.3%
P2
52.0%
55.4%
P3
55.5%
53.3%
OT
60.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
56.8%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |