Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.4%). Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs Crosby 52.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 87.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 82.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 52.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Sturm
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sturm
Crosby
Last 8: Sturm 5-3 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
2
Sturm
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
1
Sturm
Crosby
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
50.8% (1,169)
+3.2%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.2% (261)
-31.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (102)
45.0% (20)
+5.0%
On power play, Crosby has a +31.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. Crosby is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (929).
Home / Away
Sturm
Crosby
Home
54.0% (287)
53.2% (726)
Away
52.0% (302)
51.7% (724)
By Period
Sturm
Crosby
P1
53.5%
51.3%
P2
51.0%
52.1%
P3
55.1%
54.1%
OT
20.0%
45.8%
Final 5 min
52.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:53 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 01:27 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 08:41 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 01:35 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |