Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Lewis 44.3% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 62.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 90.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 82.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 84.5%
84.5%
15.5%
Sturm
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Sturm
Lewis
Last 7: Sturm 5-2 Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Lewis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
0
Sturm
Lewis
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lewis
0
2
Sturm
Lewis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
41.8% (251)
+14.3%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
45.5% (11)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
44.7% (47)
+6.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Sturm shoots left. Lewis is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (207).
Home / Away
Sturm
Lewis
Home
55.6% (412)
39.2% (166)
Away
56.0% (468)
46.2% (143)
By Period
Sturm
Lewis
P1
59.6%
45.2%
P2
52.0%
43.8%
P3
55.5%
37.8%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.8%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |