Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Roy 48.3% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 55.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 80.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 70.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Barkov
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Barkov
Roy
Last 7: Barkov 2-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Barkov
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
Barkov
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
48.3% (633)
+4.8%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
52.1% (48)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
43.7% (87)
+7.1%
On power play, Barkov has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Barkov is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (488).
Barkov shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Barkov
Roy
Home
58.1% (627)
50.8% (376)
Away
52.1% (705)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Barkov
Roy
P1
53.3%
53.8%
P2
55.0%
43.5%
P3
56.0%
46.4%
OT
60.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |