Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. McTavish wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Roy 48.3% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 51.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 75.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 60.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
McTavish
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McTavish
Roy
Last 5: McTavish 3-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McTavish
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
48.3% (633)
-5.9%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
52.1% (48)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
43.7% (87)
+6.3%
On power play, Roy has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. McTavish is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
McTavish shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
McTavish
Roy
Home
41.9% (372)
50.8% (376)
Away
42.8% (353)
45.4% (392)
By Period
McTavish
Roy
P1
47.2%
53.8%
P2
36.2%
43.5%
P3
43.6%
46.4%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 06:40 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 1 | 11:33 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |