Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Cates 40.4% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 55.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 70.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 67.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Roy
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Roy
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
40.4% (841)
+7.9%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
42.4% (66)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
32.7% (147)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Roy shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Roy
Cates
Home
50.8% (376)
38.2% (566)
Away
45.4% (392)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Roy
Cates
P1
53.8%
40.5%
P2
43.5%
42.4%
P3
46.4%
35.3%
OT
75.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.2%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |