Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.2% vs Cates 45.8% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 55.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 74.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Roy
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Roy
Cates
Last 9: Roy 6-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
4
1
Roy
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (617)
44.3% (271)
+3.2%
Power Play
39.6% (53)
77.8% (18)
-38.2%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (97)
31.7% (41)
+14.7%
On power play, Cates has a +38.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Roy shoots right. Cates is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Roy
Cates
Home
47.2% (398)
52.0% (148)
Away
46.3% (369)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Roy
Cates
P1
48.6%
42.7%
P2
48.8%
42.9%
P3
43.9%
48.5%
Final 5 min
45.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |