Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Cates 45.1% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 52.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 51.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Roy
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Roy
Cates
Last 6: Roy 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Roy
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
3
1
Roy
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
46.7% (912)
+1.9%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
33.9% (56)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
35.0% (137)
-0.3%
On power play, Roy has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Roy shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Roy
Cates
Home
49.3% (345)
46.1% (521)
Away
46.4% (433)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Roy
Cates
P1
47.6%
48.0%
P2
47.1%
42.3%
P3
47.9%
44.3%
OT
75.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
45.5%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:32 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Noah Cates |