Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.9% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 59.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 58.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 59.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Roy
O'Reilly
Last 8: Roy 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Roy
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (746)
56.6% (1,064)
-7.1%
Power Play
50.7% (75)
60.4% (260)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (110)
54.0% (261)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Roy shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
47.7% (491)
54.9% (801)
Away
50.0% (440)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
51.1%
58.0%
P2
44.6%
56.7%
P3
50.9%
55.4%
OT
42.9%
64.7%
Final 5 min
51.7%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 15:48 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 14:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2021 | 1 | 16:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |