Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 24 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 33-33 in 66 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 64.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 54.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
33
(66 meetings)
33
33
Roy
O'Reilly
Last 10: Roy 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
19
Roy
O'Reilly
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
18
5
Roy
O'Reilly
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
10
9
Roy
O'Reilly
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
56.2% (15,260)
-7.5%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
58.8% (3,445)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
51.4% (2,811)
-5.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
49.5% (2,221)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
50.8%
55.6%
P2
46.3%
57.0%
P3
48.1%
55.1%
OT
50.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 19:04 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 06:11 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |