Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.2% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 86.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 66.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Roy
O'Reilly
Last 10: Roy 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
7
Roy
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
2
Roy
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (617)
55.0% (1,084)
-7.5%
Power Play
39.6% (53)
56.8% (303)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (97)
40.3% (149)
+6.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Roy shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
47.2% (398)
54.8% (759)
Away
46.3% (369)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
48.6%
55.3%
P2
48.8%
51.9%
P3
43.9%
54.2%
OT
0.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 06:11 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |