Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 86.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 76.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 61.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Roy
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Roy
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
56.1% (342)
-4.2%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
53.3% (92)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
62.5% (8)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Roy shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Roy
Stamkos
Home
54.0% (328)
53.4% (208)
Away
50.6% (348)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Roy
Stamkos
P1
53.5%
55.6%
P2
51.6%
52.8%
P3
51.6%
59.1%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |