Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Stamkos 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 70.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 81.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 57.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Roy
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Roy
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Roy
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
49.3% (670)
-0.7%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
53.7% (121)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
33.3% (3)
+1.4%
On power play, Stamkos has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Roy shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Roy
Stamkos
Home
49.3% (345)
54.0% (400)
Away
46.4% (433)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Roy
Stamkos
P1
47.6%
48.6%
P2
47.1%
54.5%
P3
47.9%
45.4%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |