Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Aman wins 39.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aman 41.1% vs Novak 43.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 79.2%
Defensive zone
Aman 69.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 58.8%
Result
Nils Aman favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Aman
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Aman
Novak
Last 7: Aman 4-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Aman
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aman
2
1
Aman
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aman
2
1
Aman
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aman
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (664)
42.1% (1,539)
-1.9%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
51.9% (133)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
50.0% (2)
-15.7%
On power play, Novak has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Aman is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Aman shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Aman
Novak
Home
39.6% (341)
45.3% (814)
Away
40.1% (367)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Aman
Novak
P1
41.9%
43.9%
P2
42.1%
42.8%
P3
35.5%
41.7%
Final 5 min
36.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aman
38.0%▼
40.5%
39.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 06:13 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Nils Aman |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 09:21 | Defensive | Nils Aman |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Nils Aman |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 12:27 | Neutral | Nils Aman |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:38 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |