Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Aman wins 39.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aman 41.1% vs Novak 43.6% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 78.6%
Defensive zone
Aman 68.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Aman
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Aman
Novak
Last 7: Aman 4-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Aman
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aman
2
1
Aman
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aman
2
1
Aman
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aman
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (664)
42.2% (1,366)
-2.0%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
53.3% (120)
-20.0%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
50.0% (2)
-15.7%
On power play, Novak has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Aman is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Aman shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Aman
Novak
Home
39.6% (341)
46.0% (737)
Away
40.1% (367)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Aman
Novak
P1
41.9%
43.9%
P2
42.1%
44.2%
P3
35.5%
40.9%
Final 5 min
36.5%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aman
38.0%▼
40.5%
39.8%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 06:13 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Nils Aman |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 09:21 | Defensive | Nils Aman |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Nils Aman |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 12:27 | Neutral | Nils Aman |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:38 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |