Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Cates 45.5% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 64.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 97.4%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 83.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Stenlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Stenlund
Cates
Last 7: Stenlund 7-0 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (605)
45.4% (712)
+10.8%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
42.2% (102)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (305)
44.7% (47)
+7.1%
On power play, Stenlund has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stenlund is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Stenlund shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Cates
Home
57.0% (446)
46.3% (423)
Away
52.6% (511)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Stenlund
Cates
P1
55.4%
46.3%
P2
53.2%
47.1%
P3
56.2%
42.1%
OT
41.2%
18.2%
Final 5 min
57.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
58.0%
54.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 02:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |