Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.6% vs 44.1%). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Byfield 44.6% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Byfield 68.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 55.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Cates
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Cates
Byfield
Last 6: Cates 4-2 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Byfield
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Byfield
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Byfield
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
44.5% (853)
+2.2%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
42.9% (21)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
38.2% (68)
-3.2%
On power play, Byfield has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Byfield is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Cates
Byfield
Home
46.1% (521)
43.8% (502)
Away
43.3% (584)
44.3% (440)
By Period
Cates
Byfield
P1
48.0%
44.2%
P2
42.3%
43.0%
P3
44.3%
45.0%
OT
31.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
42.5%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:02 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |