Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.9% vs 45.0%). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Byfield 45.4% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 67.1%
Defensive zone
Byfield 59.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Cates
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Cates
Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
1
Cates
Byfield
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
46.5% (759)
-1.1%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
50.0% (58)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
35.1% (148)
+9.6%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Byfield is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Home / Away
Cates
Byfield
Home
46.3% (423)
46.2% (442)
Away
43.6% (438)
44.0% (523)
By Period
Cates
Byfield
P1
46.3%
44.1%
P2
47.1%
43.5%
P3
42.1%
47.7%
OT
18.2%
39.3%
Final 5 min
44.0%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 02:38 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |