Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Rakell 41.7% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rakell 60.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 57.7%
Neutral zone
Rakell 57.7%
Result
Rickard Rakell favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Cates
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cates
Rakell
Last 5: Cates 2-3 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
0
1
Cates
Rakell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
0
1
Cates
Rakell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Rakell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
36.8% (114)
+8.6%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
42.3% (26)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
0.0% (7)
+44.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +44.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Rakell is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (90).
Home / Away
Cates
Rakell
Home
46.3% (423)
41.2% (68)
Away
43.6% (438)
31.6% (79)
By Period
Cates
Rakell
P1
46.3%
34.5%
P2
47.1%
38.5%
P3
42.1%
33.3%
OT
18.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:52 | Defensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |