Scouting Report
Rickard Rakell holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Rakell 44.9% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rakell 70.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 70.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Cates
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cates
Rakell
Last 6: Cates 3-3 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
0
1
Cates
Rakell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Rakell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Rakell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
44.4% (1,864)
-0.3%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
50.3% (197)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
21.7% (23)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Cates shoots left. Rakell is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,334).
Home / Away
Cates
Rakell
Home
43.8% (1,663)
46.7% (1,041)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
42.7% (1,044)
By Period
Cates
Rakell
P1
44.5%
45.6%
P2
43.5%
42.1%
P3
41.2%
46.4%
OT
29.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:52 | Defensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Noah Cates |