Noah Cates vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 78.8%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 61.6%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 63.4%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
2
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
1
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
44.9% (8,756)
-0.8%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
50.7% (839)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
37.9% (879)
-3.0%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Cates shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Home / Away
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
43.8% (1,663)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
44.5%
45.1%
P2
43.5%
43.9%
P3
41.2%
45.3%
OT
29.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
41.1%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 15:23 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 11:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:23 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |