Noah Cates vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (-3.2%)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 53.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
47.6% (231)
-2.2%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
83.3% (12)
-41.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
33.3% (21)
+11.4%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +41.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
46.3% (423)
51.2% (164)
Away
43.6% (438)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
46.3%
50.0%
P2
47.1%
46.2%
P3
42.1%
49.5%
OT
18.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%