Noah Cates vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 71.5%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 56.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 66.4%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
50.3% (479)
-3.6%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
50.0% (28)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
30.0% (50)
+5.0%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
46.1% (521)
48.9% (270)
Away
43.3% (584)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.0%
48.7%
P2
42.3%
50.0%
P3
44.3%
47.3%
OT
31.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
42.5%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |