Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-16.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 84.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 82.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 80.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
Cates
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Cates
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Cates
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Cates
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
56.1% (690)
-15.7%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
64.6% (96)
-22.2%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
45.9% (109)
-13.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Cates
O'Reilly
Home
38.2% (566)
58.3% (408)
Away
41.0% (488)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Cates
O'Reilly
P1
40.5%
57.7%
P2
42.4%
54.8%
P3
35.3%
55.2%
OT
42.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |