Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.8% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-9.4%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 63.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Cates
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (271)
55.0% (1,084)
-10.7%
Power Play
77.8% (18)
56.8% (303)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
40.3% (149)
-8.6%
On power play, Cates has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Cates shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Cates
O'Reilly
Home
52.0% (148)
54.8% (759)
Away
38.5% (182)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Cates
O'Reilly
P1
42.7%
55.3%
P2
42.9%
51.9%
P3
48.5%
54.2%
Final 5 min
44.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%