Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Carrick 53.7% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 60.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 86.3%
Neutral zone
Carrick 66.4%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Cates
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Cates
Carrick
Last 7: Cates 4-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Cates
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
54.9% (428)
-9.5%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
66.7% (3)
-24.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
50.0% (50)
-5.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Cates
Carrick
Home
46.3% (423)
58.2% (225)
Away
43.6% (438)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Cates
Carrick
P1
46.3%
55.2%
P2
47.1%
52.8%
P3
42.1%
55.4%
Final 5 min
44.0%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:43 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 05:03 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Noah Cates |