Scouting Report
Shane Pinto holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pinto on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Pinto 50.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 77.9%
Defensive zone
Pinto 63.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 63.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Cates
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Cates
Pinto
Last 8: Cates 3-5 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
3
Cates
Pinto
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Pinto
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
50.2% (520)
-4.8%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
68.0% (25)
-25.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
49.4% (89)
-4.7%
On power play, Pinto has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Pinto is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Cates
Pinto
Home
46.3% (423)
48.8% (301)
Away
43.6% (438)
52.6% (333)
By Period
Cates
Pinto
P1
46.3%
51.2%
P2
47.1%
48.9%
P3
42.1%
53.3%
OT
18.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
44.0%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | OT | 02:00 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:55 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Noah Cates |