Scouting Report
Shane Pinto holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pinto on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Cates wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Pinto 50.3% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Pinto leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 70.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 79.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 69.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Cates
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
13
(20 meetings)
7
13
Cates
Pinto
Last 10: Cates 3-7 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
3
Cates
Pinto
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
1
5
Cates
Pinto
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
6
5
Cates
Pinto
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
50.6% (2,716)
-6.5%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
54.4% (90)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
44.9% (234)
-10.0%
On power play, Pinto has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Cates shoots left. Pinto is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,185).
Home / Away
Cates
Pinto
Home
43.8% (1,663)
50.9% (1,501)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
49.6% (1,539)
By Period
Cates
Pinto
P1
44.5%
48.3%
P2
43.5%
51.7%
P3
41.2%
50.9%
OT
29.4%
46.7%
Final 5 min
41.1%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | OT | 02:00 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:55 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:17 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:23 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:18 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 18:24 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 02:44 | Neutral | Noah Cates |